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BC Elections: Demographic indicators are linked to party support

Submitted by on May 5, 2013 – 9:56 amNo Comment | 3,063 views

Provincial ridings with lots of rich, married homeowners are more likely to vote Liberal while those with plenty of poor, single renters tend to swing NDP, according to a comparison of census data with voting patterns.

And if you’re looking for a riding that might tip Green this election, keep your eye out for one with lots of divorced bike commuters.

Using data from the 2006 census, BC Stats has compiled demographic profiles of all 85 ridings in the province. Comparing that data to results from the 2009 election makes it possible to see which demographic characteristics — from marital status to ethnicity — correlate most strongly with support for a particular political party.

Of more than 20 indicators analyzed by The Vancouver Sun, the five most strongly linked to support for the BC Liberals were, in order, a high income, being married, owning your own home, commuting to work by car and having a university degree.

For the NDP, it was renting, having a low income, not finishing high school, being South Asian and commuting by transit.

Being divorced was the indicator most strongly correlated with support for the Greens, with commuting by bike a close second and walking to work third. Full article

Source: Vancouver Sun, April 29 2013.Rich ridings lean Liberal, poor ridings NDP: census data, by Chad Skelton

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